Updated: The Actual Closest U.S. Presidential Elections in History
It's the Gilded Age again!
Update: In the original post, I applied a methodology that determined the Real Decisive Margin by taking the raw vote margin in the closest decision states as a percentage of all votes in the presidential election. While that could be argued to be a fine measure, a more state-centric and thus accurate measure would consider the Real Decisive Margin to the be the raw vote margin as a percentage of all votes cast in the closest decisive states. So with that said, that’s instead the methodology being applied here. The post below has been updated to reflect this.
As the presidential election nears and early voting begins as early as mid-September in some states like Pennsylvania, this year’s presidential election is looking especially close—though it may not wind up that way. Democrats and journalists often state that Joe Biden was elected by 7 million votes, a figure known as the popular vote, which in a federation is not binding, much less formally documented anywhere. In a union of states, if you’re not paying attention to the states, then you’re not paying attention.
Much like an exaggerated inauguration crowd by a certain former president, Biden really earned the presidency by a decisive popular vote of 42,918 votes across three decisive states: Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. These states were the “closest decisive states,” constituting a measure I’ll call the Real Decisive Margin because they were (a) the states carried by the presidential election’s winner by the narrowest margins and (b) they comprised the minimum number of electoral votes required to win the White House. When 2020 is ultimately ranked alongside other presidential elections, that year’s election stands as the fifth closest in American history.
The rank and overall Real Decisive Margin are determined by the sum of votes in the closest decisive states as a share of all votes cast in the closest decisive states.
The decisive votes in 2020 resulted in a Real Decisive Margin of 0.30 percentage points, meaning the margin by which Biden won accounted for 0.30 percent of all votes cast in the election. That compares to the closest presidential contest in history, 2000, with a Real Decisive Margin of 0.009, or nine-thousandths of one percent of all votes cast. Accounting for all presidential elections, four are excluded: 1788-89 and 1792, when George Washington ran uncontested, and 1800 and 1824 when the U.S. House of Representatives elected the president.
The last president to be elected by a real decisive margin greater than the historical median (both today and at the time) was Bill Clinton in 1996, defeating Bob Dole by 5.72 percentage points or 1,348,277 votes in the closest decisive states.
What stands out to me are the two relatively brief periods in American history that saw the closest presidential elections. First, the Gilded Age with four elections—1876, 1880, 1884, and 1888—all within the top fifteen closest. The second period is our current one in which four elections—2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020—all fall within the top ten closest.
It’s worth noting that these two periods have quite a bit in common.
Economically, both the Gilded Age and our modern period were times of transformation and uncertainty. The late 19th century saw rapid industrialization and urbanization, shifting from an agrarian to an industrial economy, leading to labor disputes and populist movements. Similarly, our modern period has been marked by globalization and technological advancements, with traditional manufacturing declining, the tech industry rising, and disruptions like the Great Recession causing economic anxiety and voter volatility.
Social changes and tensions were prominent in both periods. The Gilded Age involved Reconstruction, civil rights struggles, and immigration, sparking debates over national identity. In our modern period, issues of racial inequality, immigration, and social justice have shaped political discourse. Media and communication played significant roles in both periods. Partisan newspapers were influential in the late 19th century, while the internet and social media in our modern period have created echo chambers and intensified polarization. Both periods saw populist movements challenging the political establishment and reflecting deep dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Less importantly, two Gilded Age elections (1876 and 1888) included instances where the winner of the election earned fewer overall votes compared to the runner-up in the Electoral College.
Interestingly, in 1892, the winner of that election was former president Grover Cleveland, who won his seat back to become the first president elected to a non-consecutive second term.
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